From a standing start in 2004, digital music has grown at a phenomenal rate to the point where over 98% of singles are bought as downloads. There are now many ways to access music digitally, and the next five years will certainly see more exciting ways for people to listen to and own music.
The massive success of the iPod and iTunes (and now the iPhone) were just the starting point. With download services like 7digital, Napster, eMusic, Amazon and Bleep, we now have an incredibly rich digital marketplace that never rests and where innovations continue to startle.
While most music sales today are à la carte (i.e. download a track to own), we are seeing very clear signs that services are moving towards ‘access’ as well as 'ownership'. Subscription services like Napster were the first wave here - allowing you unlimited streaming access/tethered downloads to their entire catalogue for a set fee each month. But as ways of accessing music are developing, so too are the ways that you will ‘pay’ for that access. Services like Last.fm and Spotify are based on streaming and are paid for through advertising (although you can upgrade on a service like Spotify to an ad-free tier for a set fee each month). Even YouTube is operating this way as more and more acts and their record labels set up dedicated YouTube channels.
The likes of We7 and Qtrax, where you ‘pay’ for the download in exchange for listening to ads, are showing how ad-funding and à la carte can coexist .
Videogames too are an important part of music and will continue to grow. The staggering success of Rock Band, Guitar Hero, SingStar and Wii Music has managed to present music in a whole new environment.
The iPhone has helped take the idea of music on your mobile way beyond ringtones and the arrival at the end of 2008 of Nokia’s Comes With Music (unlimited downloads for a year bundled into the cost of the handset) is a very clear sign of the ways things are moving. As more mobile users upgrade to 3G connections, we will see even more developments here, with mobile audio and video streaming set to become commonplace.
The idea of shared playlists (seen most obviously on Spotify and Last.fm) will also shape the coming few years. Technology (in terms of both devices and services) is facilitating this, empowering consumers in ways that were unimaginable even five years ago. This will all migrate to connected devices and, in doing so, take the idea of portable music to new heights.
Then there are the sites that allow you to invest in new bands (such as SellaBand, Slicethepie and Bandstock), placing the fan at the very centre of things, supporting grassroots acts and benefitting financially from their success.
The future of music is diverse and exciting. There won’t be one way of accessing and consuming music, instead, lots of different services will sit side-by-side, giving music fans unparalleled access and choice. The possibilities are endless.